Saturday, July 24, 2010

Dealer price reduction revenue may be a large number of deaths in 2007

New Year is not the old grudges behind. Wine glass to celebrate the New Year in 2007, two weeks ago over his head, Changan Ford Mazda Automobile Corporation (referred to as Changan Ford) public relations staff, also for the last year of the "new Baoding incident" on the go.

A month ago, a company called "new tripod" of Shanxi dealers held a news conference in Beijing, "complaint" Changan Ford vehicles poor sales forced tying, leading distributor of heavy losses, and high-profile announcement out of the market.

Industry observers said the "new tripod" of the exit there is coincidental, but on China's auto dealer groups, the delisting has its inevitability. Next two years, a large number of auto dealers out of the market.

The curtain has just opened tragedy

China's auto dealers in the winter is coming. "The new tripod," the whine, but a large number of Chinese auto dealers "death" of a signal.

"From now on, two years, there will be a large number of auto dealers out of the market. "December 26, 2006, Beijing Asian Games Village Automobile Exchange Market (hereinafter referred to as" Asian City "), Su Hui, general manager, told reporter predict the fate of China's auto dealer groups.

Many an interview in the industry, are forecast Su Hui, agreed. They believe that winter is coming. "The new tripod" whine, is a large number of Chinese auto dealers "death" of a signal.

Looking back just past 2006, the Chinese auto dealers as early as three or four years ago not to seek licenses ecstasy. In fact, in 2006 China car sales market, not less. Association of Automobile Manufacturers statistics show that the total national car sales up 30%. However, happiness is the manufacturers, they have nothing. According to Su Hui, said in the 2006 National Automobile Dealers luck with no shortage of those, but overall, it was dismal, "333 pattern": one third of the profits; one third of the loss; third of the a hard support.

Distributors, even those fortunate enough to squeeze into one-third of the ranks of those who make money, their profits can not be compared with the past. 2002 and 2003, the Chinese auto market filled with huge profits, selling a car can earn thousands or even million of gross profit. By 2006, profits already gone, and dealers began to complain about "selling an Audi also earn 2 300." "I know the dealer passes are not very happy. "Said Su Hui.

Su Hui in the office, reporters heard the conversation: "Although manufacturers in the report to the Inland Revenue Department, said their profit in 2006 increased by 40%, but we do not make money ... in 2006 ..." dialogue with Su Hui the Dongfeng Citroen dealer, his plea for "Asian market" rent allowance of time.

According to survey this reporter in 2006, in addition to Audi and FAW-Volkswagen, Guangzhou Toyota dealer, the other almost without exception, is the manufacturer money, businesses lose money. Mudanjiang Bok茅 Guangzhou Honda dealers Li Qigang, said they sold widely in 2006 lost money the first time. Dongfeng Nissan, a dealer said: "Nissan's profit in 2006 was 40 billion, could be less than half of the dealers made money. "

Waning of situation, forcing a group of dealers in 2006, Shun Gong crop dig? SPAN class = articleLink> Nanjing Fiat dealers have almost 1 / 3 had closed. One is called the Cheng Peng's "Asian City" two agents, told this reporter: "Now''Arcadia''on small dealers than the previous 1 / 20."

Industry, when in an interview, said the tragedy about to pull the curtain, the public can see just hoist the iceberg.

Excess capacity of the first victims

Inquiry dealers operating in 2006 bleak causality, some respondents talked about the macro-control, that the dealer is the overcapacity of the first victims. Looking to the future, they should also continue the macro-control, to pay the price even more tragic.

December 8, 2006, "New Baoding," Chairman Wang Fujuan reason in the interpretation of delisting, it will be the responsibility will fall into child onto the Changan Ford. Changan Ford Zeyi retaliate quickly by as.

Senior members of the media discussed the "new Baoding" delisting when the whole story, the focus placed on the macro-control on the last three years. Apparently, the last three years, the Chinese car market growing supply, increasing competition, ever-lower prices, more and more quickly diluted the dealer profits. This is a car dealer because less and less money, but not all. It just cut a dealer who had wounds, while the macro-control is rubbed in the wounds of a handful of salt dealers.

In early 2004, the central government "blew" the macro-control of the horn, "sword" Kanxiang industries with excess capacity. After one year, the National Development and Reform Commission extended the "visible hand" to control cement, electrolytic aluminum, ferroalloy, coke, coal, calcium carbide, textile, power, real estate, steel, lead, zinc, and flat glass industries The production scale, high fixed-asset investment growth rate, and finally in October 2006 reached the lowest level in four years.

This so pleased with the central government figures for the car dealers are having a hard time. Macro-control work, the reduction of new programs, business investment in fixed assets shrink, auto dealers are a group of customer orders ironclad value plummeted. So, watch the Spring Festival is coming car dealers who do not see the results of the "spring." It is reported that China's auto market, group purchasing and the ratio of personal consumption, the most optimistic estimate for the March 7 opening, in October last year, according to the decrease in fixed assets investment growth rate, the next two years will inevitably affect the Group's purchase of the automobile market sharply total sales.

Buy less, the supply is increasing

Car manufacturers to build the capacity for two years, into the vast majority will be released in 2007. Deterioration of supply and demand, dealers will no doubt destroy the "beneficial." Rough estimate, in mid-2006 to new capacity in 2007 are: the third plant of Tianjin FAW Toyota, 200 000; Beijing Hyundai Second Factory 300 000; the second plant of Guangzhou Honda, 120 000; Changan Ford's second plant in Nanjing 160 000. These figures have been weak enough to destroy the will of dealers.

The bad news is far more than that, the automotive industry reported capacity and production capacity and sales in the construction of difference, completely destroyed the dealer confidence in the future. It is reported that Volkswagen Car Plant went into operation last year after the total capacity of 660,000 per year, while sales of 300,000 last year, which means that there are 360,000 of production capacity has not released; Guangzhou Toyota's sales goal for next year 15, but the planning of Nansha plant capacity is 300,000, also has a further expansion to 500,000 in the reserve space. Disclosure of data from the departments of view, the industry reported capacity and actual production and sales of construction the difference up to 2 million.

On December 26 last year, the National Development and Reform Commission issued "opinion on the auto industry restructuring notification," the first time include automotive industries with excess capacity, the notice for the manufacturer, the same as in the final of the car dealers sentencing. The notice said the "signs of overcapacity in the automotive industry show, and may further aggravate, if not promptly resolved, the problem of excess production capacity will be more severe. "

Laments the industry, industry surplus dealer price fell head first, the next two years, they will be blind for the year to pay the price of investment and lack of vision.

Interrupted "trilogy"

Increasingly regulated business environment, becoming sunny in government procurement, more stringent credit policy, will be within the next two years, so 34 years ago, a flood of speculators, the unspoken rules of business for the small but powerful chain paid a heavy price.

"The new tripod" of the delisting, the partners feel that this is the outbreak of the disease itself. "They had to make a million with 30 million business, cash flow problems now, no money. "Repeatedly and" New Baoding "worked with Shanxi Jincheng two original Jindong car dealer told reporters," New Baoding "is the second half of 2003 into the car sales industry, they continuously take two years Changan Ford under the brands of 4S stores and other qualifications to enable them to quickly expand big, but short of money, to the end and even no longer afford to provide car manufacturers.

Related to those involved, said the new tripod since last March after no mention had a new car, but also to provide loans to the Ford dealer finance company also found that dealers sold cars on several occasions but not on loans, so the factory can not return for a pledge certificate, the owner can not get a license.

There is no evidence that the "new Baoding" a car sales industry speculators, but look at China's auto dealer group, capable, can be found everywhere, relying on the Government, banks and manufacturers, "friendship," playing skillfully deflected game. Before the game began four years, profits in the car sales market, a real master, can often out of the perfect "trilogy," rely on the "extraordinary" relationship, can use less than 30 million Toggle money than a billion business:

The first "step" to spend more than 10 million yuan of public relations, got a brand 4S shop qualifications. Second half of 2004, profits of the era, but there are still many people find the reporter, want to help open the "opportunities" to get the distribution as long as a car brand 4S shop qualifications, they are willing to pay from 800 to 10,000,000 yuan of public relations expenses;

The second "step" to 4S store of qualifications, in exchange for more than 200 million bank credit;

The third "step", buttoned key government agencies responsible for procurement, to do group sales.

And "Cheng Peng," with the "Asian City" and another refused to disclose the names of two agents, playing a small but powerful chain of "master." He allegedly has potential energy in the FAW Group approved sliver of the "big brother", the most tight, they also can provide "full board" (6) Audi. Recently, the two agents to help Beijing from Guangdong, a district government procurement to a number of Audi models available in the market out of the old. Rely on these resources, Tianjin, a car has nothing to do with the trading company is willing to sell 73 cars into the conditions of the profit for his fund. Mentioned before, the original dealer Shanxi Jincheng East, the fire equipment industry in Shanxi party princes, because the fire equipment business, and government agencies and big business so many friends, because the purchase of official vehicles often have a message, it smoothly so from the car sales.

But the dream always woke up. Since 2003, the market began to house in order, therefore, players often from the "trilogy" in the wake. In 2003, the "Government Procurement Law" went into effect, although this bill is not all car dealers into the sun, but more and more public procurement of sunlight, so "42" in the "extremely heavy" before Losing power. At the same time, the 2003 "Banking Regulatory Law" and "Commercial Bank Law", will also be the risk control system, commercial banks put intense financial reforms. The last two years, Chinese banks listed overseas, the credit system increasingly standardized, there is no buffer funds, banks no longer confidence in the profitability of the industry. Diamond Bank could take advantage more and more difficult. In 2005, used to call "extremely heavy" leverage finally broken, the market scale, rapid return jin jin.

Whether willing or not, a large number of auto dealers have to ready to pull out. Asian city that refused to disclose the names of two agents said: "More and more channels not get through, and Lee Bo risks. Most stay for another two years, I quit. "Yuan Jin East also told the press:" I do car sales is a sideline, and now is very risky, profits down, put every vehicle from the field at any point if the road out of things, all have to themselves. A bit more harm than good. "

Emergency sound of the external environment, within the industry are also jittery. The second half of 2005, most manufacturers began to straighten out. Shanghai Volkswagen knife cut more than 20 management confusion, poor management of the dealer. In 2006, the "Measures for the Administration of Automobile Brand Sales," so that car manufacturers will get a superior sword, they can always cancel removed mismanagement authorized dealers. Not long ago, just a few family Volkswagen dealers are Abstract plaque. The Changan Ford "new tripod," the crisis is precisely because they are qualified to withdraw the decision of its agents arising.

Manufacturers with an iron hand, so many dealers shouting unfair. 34 years ago, wanted to do any selling brand of 4S dealers, manufacturers almost have to be delivered to tens of millions of mortgage payments, many car manufacturers such as forward sale by selling dealer as eligible for development, which makes the dealer group too numerous and their false prosperity result from the auto market, now they did not care about life and death business.

For their own survival, manufacturers continue to add more tasks to dealers, distributors receive a lot of tasks this year almost doubled. Dealers know, the manufacturers will only help those who have the ability to sell more cars business, rather than skillfully deflected the speculators. Most of the initial investment speculators become sunk costs.

All this makes the situation in 2007, the paranoia. Auto industry observers observed: the market rules and the gap between secular human has been compressed, the speculators, dealers will no longer be used to dot down the costs. The Things that they easily get the order, then they missed to improve internal management, research consumer needs and provide quality services Qianxin time, once the real swords and spears together, defeat is inevitable.

Infer the industry elite: the next two years, the former has high walls disease vector, after war factories urging, their predicament grain Road was broken, apart from the few sensitive to market trends, first distributor of self-innovation , the majority of companies, especially those liabilities admission of speculators, then as autumn after the chrysanthemum, miserable decline is irreversible.


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